Al Qadsiah vs Al-Faisaly prediction — Saudi Pro League · Sun 30 Aug · 19:00 UK

Saudi Pro League · Sun 30 Aug · 19:00 UK
Al Qadsiah 40Draw 28Al-Faisaly 32
The call
68%
Al Qadsiah or draw
3.5
Goals expected
1d 17hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Over 1.5 goals86%
Al Qadsiah to score84%
Al-Faisaly to score81%
Over 2.5 goals68%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W W W W L W
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5AQA 0 · D 2 · AFA 3
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Apr 2021Al Qadsiah 1–2 Al-Faisaly
Jan 2021Al-Faisaly 2–2 Al Qadsiah
Mar 2019Al-Faisaly 3–0 Al Qadsiah
Nov 2018Al Qadsiah 1–1 Al-Faisaly
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Common questions

Who will win Al Qadsiah vs Al-Faisaly?

Bawler's model rates this match: Al Qadsiah are favoured (40% win probability vs 32% for Al-Faisaly, 28% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Al Qadsiah vs Al-Faisaly?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Qadsiah 1-1 Al-Faisaly (11.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.50.

How does Bawler predict Al Qadsiah vs Al-Faisaly?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Al Qadsiah 40%, the draw 28% and Al-Faisaly 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Al Qadsiah vs Al-Faisaly?

BTTS: Yes (68% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.85 and away expected goals 1.65.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Qadsiah vs Al-Faisaly?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.50. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Saudi Pro League table →
All fixtures & results →Al Qadsiah form →Al-Faisaly form →