FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 11 September 2026

Al Qadsiah 3–3 Al EttifaqMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 11 September 2026

> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Al Qadsiah at 74%, draw at 16%, Al Ettifaq at 11%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Al Qadsiah to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Qadsiah win
74%
Draw
16%
Actual ✓
Ettifaq win
11%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.77 – 1.01
Total 3.78
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.2 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Al Qadsiah's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.77 xG edge to make a home win the model's 74% forecast."

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