Al Diriyah 0–2 Al QadsiahMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 03 September 2026

0–2

Al Qadsiah win

Al Qadsiah

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Al Diriyah at 26%, draw at 25%, Al Qadsiah at 49%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Al Qadsiah.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Diriyah win

26%

Draw

25%

Qadsiah win

49%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.23 – 1.74

Total 2.97

Actual

0 – 2

Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Medium confidence

Pre-match: 74%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 35%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 80% confidence as Al Qadsiah's 0.52 xG advantage and 49% win probability signal a high-tempo away performance that breaches Al Diriyah's defence."

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