FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Thursday, 22 October 2026

Al Hazem 2–2 Al FayhaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Hazem or draw at 71%. Bawler had Al Hazem at 44%, the draw at 27% and Al Fayha at 29%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Hazem win
44%
Draw
27%
Result
Al Fayha win
29%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.9
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 75%, driven by Al Hazem's 0.32 xG advantage and combined expected output of 2.69 goals between both sides."

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