FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Monday, 19 October 2026

Al Hilal 1–0 Al HazemMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 19 October 2026

Al Hilal
1–0
Al Hilal win
Al Hazem

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Hilal to win at 84%. Bawler had Al Hilal at 84%, the draw at 11% and Al Hazem at 5%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Hilal win
84%
Result
Draw
11%
Al Hazem win
5%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.2 – 0.7
Total 3.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.1 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced 2.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Hilal to win
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Hilal's home win forecast rests on a decisive 2.48 expected-goals advantage, translating to an 85% win probability over a visiting side generating just 0.70 xG."

More from Bawler