Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFC Utrecht on top, and Ángel Alarcon getting plenty of shots away.
ADO Den Haag v FC Utrecht prediction
Our model gives ADO Den Haag 30%, the draw 25% and FC Utrecht 45%, so FC Utrecht start as favourites. Our predicted score is ADO Den Haag 1–2 FC Utrecht, the likeliest FC Utrecht win score (9%). We expect 3.1 goals in total: 1.3 for ADO Den Haag and 1.7 for FC Utrecht. Both sides are more likely than not to score (61%) and three or more goals is 59%.
We expect ADO Den Haag to have 15.3 shots (5.3 on target) and FC Utrecht 14.6 (5.7 on target), and corners at 4.8 to 5.0. Of their last five meetings on our records, ADO Den Haag have won one, FC Utrecht three, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended ADO Den Haag 1–4 FC Utrecht, in Apr 2021.
ADO Den Haag come in with two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last six. FC Utrecht have three wins, one draw and two defeats over the same run. Of the players, Ángel Alarcon (FC Utrecht) tops both our lists, with 2.6 shots and 0.8 on target expected if they start. Sékou Sylla of ADO Den Haag is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. For Bawler's pick we have gone with FC Utrecht or Draw, FC Utrecht Over 10.5 Shots and Ángel Alarcon 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 42% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/8, or 2.36.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
ADO Den Haag · last 6
FC Utrecht · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
FC Utrecht or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win ADO Den Haag vs FC Utrecht?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Utrecht are favoured (45% win probability vs 30% for ADO Den Haag, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for ADO Den Haag vs FC Utrecht?
Bawler's predicted score is ADO Den Haag 1-2 FC Utrecht: the most likely score if FC Utrecht win, which is the likeliest result (45%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.1%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict ADO Den Haag vs FC Utrecht?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives ADO Den Haag 30%, the draw 25% and FC Utrecht 45%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs FC Utrecht?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 61% chance. That is based on ADO Den Haag expecting 1.35 goals and FC Utrecht 1.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in ADO Den Haag vs FC Utrecht?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the ADO Den Haag v FC Utrecht line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for ADO Den Haag v FC Utrecht?
FC Utrecht or Draw (70%), FC Utrecht Over 10.5 Shots (80%), Ángel Alarcon 2+ Shots (69%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 42% chance, a fair price of 11/8 (2.36). 18+, please gamble responsibly.