Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelWrexham on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Wrexham v Portsmouth prediction
Our model gives Wrexham 43%, the draw 28% and Portsmouth 28%, so Wrexham start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Wrexham 1–0 Portsmouth, the most likely Wrexham win (12%). Wrexham are expected to score 1.4 goals and Portsmouth 1.1, 2.5 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (50%) and three or more goals is 45%.
In their last six games Wrexham have two wins, one draw and three defeats, while Portsmouth have three wins, two draws and one defeat. Wrexham drew their most recent match and Portsmouth lost theirs. We expect Wrexham to have 14.4 shots (5.0 on target) and Portsmouth 11.1 (3.3 on target), and corners at 5.5 to 4.5. That points to Wrexham doing more of the attacking.
Of the players, Kieffer Moore (Wrexham) tops both our lists, with 2.9 shots and 1.0 on target expected if they start. Ebou Adams of Portsmouth is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. Of their last two meetings on our records, Wrexham have won one, Portsmouth none, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Wrexham 2–1 Portsmouth, in Feb 2026. Bawler's pick combines Wrexham or Draw, Wrexham Over 10.5 Shots and Wrexham Over 2.5 Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 51%, a fair price of Evens (1.97).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Wrexham · last 6
Portsmouth · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Wrexham or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Wrexham vs Portsmouth?
Bawler's model rates this match: Wrexham are favoured (43% win probability vs 28% for Portsmouth, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Wrexham vs Portsmouth?
Bawler's predicted score is Wrexham 1-0 Portsmouth: the most likely score if Wrexham win, which is the likeliest result (43%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.5%. Expected total goals: 2.5.
How does Bawler predict Wrexham vs Portsmouth?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Wrexham 43%, the draw 28% and Portsmouth 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Portsmouth?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on Wrexham expecting 1.39 goals and Portsmouth 1.08.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Wrexham vs Portsmouth?
Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 45%.
When are the Wrexham v Portsmouth line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Wrexham v Portsmouth?
Wrexham or Draw (72%), Wrexham Over 10.5 Shots (79%), Wrexham Over 2.5 Shots on Target (84%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 51% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.97). 18+, please gamble responsibly.