Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Lincoln City v Wrexham prediction
Lincoln City are narrow favourites on our numbers, at 38%. Wrexham are 34%, and the draw 28%. Our predicted score is Lincoln City 1–0 Wrexham: the most likely score if Lincoln City win, at 10%. We expect 2.6 goals in total: 1.3 for Lincoln City and 1.3 for Wrexham. Both sides are more likely than not to score (53%) and three or more goals is 49%.
On form, Lincoln City have one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six games, and Wrexham have two wins, one draw and three defeats. Of the players, Kieffer Moore (Wrexham) tops both our lists, with 2.5 shots and 1.0 on target expected if they start. Conor McGrandles of Lincoln City is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
We expect Lincoln City to have 15.8 shots (4.3 on target) and Wrexham 11.9 (3.6 on target), and corners at 5.0 to 4.2. That points to Lincoln City doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Lincoln City have won two, Wrexham three. The last meeting ended Lincoln City 0–2 Wrexham, in May 2025. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Over 22.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target. The chance all three land is 58% on our numbers, so the fair price is 8/11, or 1.73.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Lincoln City · last 6
Wrexham · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Lincoln City or draw is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lincoln City are favoured (38% win probability vs 34% for Wrexham, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
Bawler's predicted score is Lincoln City 1-0 Wrexham: the most likely score if Lincoln City win, which is the likeliest result (38%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lincoln City 38%, the draw 28% and Wrexham 34%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Lincoln City expecting 1.35 goals and Wrexham 1.26.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 49%.
When are the Lincoln City v Wrexham line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Lincoln City v Wrexham?
Over 22.5 Total Shots (81%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (78%), Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target (77%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 58% chance, a fair price of 8/11 (1.73). 18+, please gamble responsibly.