Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelWest Ham United on top: we expect them to win and do most of the shooting.
West Ham United v Stoke City prediction
Our model makes West Ham United clear favourites for this Championship game, with a 71% chance of winning. Stoke City are given 11%, and the draw 18%. Our predicted score is West Ham United 2–0 Stoke City (11%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. We expect 3.3 goals in total: 2.4 for West Ham United and 0.8 for Stoke City. Both teams scoring is 52% and three or more goals is 63%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, West Ham United and Stoke City have one win each, with three draws. When they last met, it finished West Ham United 1–1 Stoke City, in Apr 2018. On shots, our forecast is 17.9 for West Ham United and 10.0 for Stoke City, with 5.8 and 2.8 on target, and corners at 7.0 to 3.8. So we expect West Ham United to do more of the shooting.
West Ham United come in with two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last six. Stoke City have four wins, one draw and one defeat over the same run. Bawler's pick combines West Ham United to Win, West Ham United Over 13.5 Shots and West Ham United Over 3.5 Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 48%, a fair price of 11/10 (2.07).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
West Ham United · last 6
Stoke City · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
West Ham United to win is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win West Ham United vs Stoke City?
Bawler's model rates this match: West Ham United are favoured (71% win probability vs 11% for Stoke City, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for West Ham United vs Stoke City?
Bawler's predicted score is West Ham United 2-0 Stoke City: the most likely score if West Ham United win, which is the likeliest result (71%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.1%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict West Ham United vs Stoke City?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives West Ham United 71%, the draw 18% and Stoke City 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in West Ham United vs Stoke City?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on West Ham United expecting 2.41 goals and Stoke City 0.84.
Over or under 2.5 goals in West Ham United vs Stoke City?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.
When are the West Ham United v Stoke City line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for West Ham United v Stoke City?
West Ham United to Win (71%), West Ham United Over 13.5 Shots (79%), West Ham United Over 3.5 Shots on Target (80%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.07). 18+, please gamble responsibly.