Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBirmingham City on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Stoke City v Birmingham City prediction
Our model gives Stoke City 29%, the draw 27% and Birmingham City 44%, so Birmingham City start as favourites. Our predicted score is Stoke City 0–1 Birmingham City: the most likely score if Birmingham City win, at 10%. We expect 2.7 goals in total: 1.2 for Stoke City and 1.5 for Birmingham City. Both sides are more likely than not to score (54%) and three or more goals is 50%.
We expect Stoke City to have 11.9 shots (4.2 on target) and Birmingham City 11.3 (3.1 on target), and corners at 4.8 to 4.7. Of their last five meetings on our records, Stoke City have won two, Birmingham City one, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Birmingham City 1–1 Stoke City, in Jan 2026.
Stoke City come in with four wins, one draw and one defeat in their last six. Birmingham City have five wins, no draws and one defeat over the same run. Of the players, August Priske (Birmingham City) tops both our lists, with 2.0 shots and 0.9 on target expected if they start. Maksym Talovierov of Stoke City is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick combines Birmingham City or Draw, Birmingham City Over 7.5 Shots and Birmingham City Over 1.5 Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 48%, a fair price of 11/10 (2.06).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Stoke City · last 6
Birmingham City · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Birmingham City or draw is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Birmingham City are favoured (44% win probability vs 29% for Stoke City, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Bawler's predicted score is Stoke City 0-1 Birmingham City: the most likely score if Birmingham City win, which is the likeliest result (44%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.0%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Stoke City 29%, the draw 27% and Birmingham City 44%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Stoke City expecting 1.19 goals and Birmingham City 1.50.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Stoke City vs Birmingham City?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.
When are the Stoke City v Birmingham City line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Stoke City v Birmingham City?
Birmingham City or Draw (71%), Birmingham City Over 7.5 Shots (81%), Birmingham City Over 1.5 Shots on Target (78%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.06). 18+, please gamble responsibly.