Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelValencia on top, and Arnaut Danjuma getting plenty of shots away.
Valencia v Osasuna prediction
Our model gives Valencia 43%, the draw 27% and Osasuna 30%, so Valencia start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Valencia 1–0 Osasuna, the most likely Valencia win (10%). Valencia are expected to score 1.5 goals and Osasuna 1.2, 2.7 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (53%) and three or more goals is 49%.
On form, Valencia have one win, two draws and three defeats from their last six games, and Osasuna have two wins, one draw and three defeats. Of the players, Ante Budimir (Osasuna) tops both our lists, with 2.4 shots and 1.1 on target expected if they start. Pablo Maffeo of Valencia is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
We expect Valencia to have 15.2 shots (4.9 on target) and Osasuna 11.1 (3.6 on target), and corners at 5.8 to 3.6. That points to Valencia doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Valencia have won two, Osasuna one, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Valencia 1–0 Osasuna, in Mar 2026. Bawler's pick combines Valencia or Draw, Valencia Over 11.5 Shots and Arnaut Danjuma 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 33%, a fair price of 2/1 (3.08).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Valencia · last 6
Osasuna · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Valencia or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Valencia vs Osasuna?
Bawler's model rates this match: Valencia are favoured (43% win probability vs 30% for Osasuna, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Bawler's predicted score is Valencia 1-0 Osasuna: the most likely score if Valencia win, which is the likeliest result (43%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.2%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Valencia vs Osasuna?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Valencia 43%, the draw 27% and Osasuna 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Valencia expecting 1.47 goals and Osasuna 1.18.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 49%.
When are the Valencia v Osasuna line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Valencia v Osasuna?
Valencia or Draw (70%), Valencia Over 11.5 Shots (76%), Arnaut Danjuma 2+ Shots (55%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 33% chance, a fair price of 2/1 (3.08). 18+, please gamble responsibly.