Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelOsasuna on top, with Ante Budimir our likeliest to test the keeper.
Osasuna v Málaga prediction
Osasuna go into this LaLiga match as strong favourites on our numbers: 60% to win, against 17% for Málaga and 24% for a draw. Our predicted score is Osasuna 1–0 Málaga (12%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Our expected goals are 1.9 for Osasuna and 0.9 for Málaga, 2.8 in all. Both teams scoring is 50% and three or more goals is 52%.
For cards, Sergio Herrera (Osasuna) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. On form, Osasuna have two wins, one draw and three defeats from their last six games, and Málaga have one win, two draws and three defeats.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Osasuna have won two, Málaga one, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Málaga 1–2 Osasuna, in Mar 2019. On shots, our forecast is 17.8 for Osasuna and 10.2 for Málaga, with 5.2 and 3.1 on target, and corners at 5.4 to 3.7. So we expect Osasuna to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick combines Osasuna or Draw, Osasuna Over 13.5 Shots and Ante Budimir 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 51%, a fair price of Evens (1.96).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Osasuna · last 6
Málaga · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Osasuna to win is 60% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Osasuna vs Málaga?
Bawler's model rates this match: Osasuna are favoured (60% win probability vs 17% for Málaga, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Osasuna vs Málaga?
Bawler's predicted score is Osasuna 1-0 Málaga: the most likely score if Osasuna win, which is the likeliest result (60%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.6%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Osasuna vs Málaga?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Osasuna 60%, the draw 24% and Málaga 17%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Málaga?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on Osasuna expecting 1.87 goals and Málaga 0.90.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Osasuna vs Málaga?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 52%.
When are the Osasuna v Málaga line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Osasuna v Málaga?
Osasuna or Draw (83%), Osasuna Over 13.5 Shots (78%), Ante Budimir 1+ Shot on Target (69%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 51% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.96). 18+, please gamble responsibly.