What we expect
Our forecast for this match. The tick on each bar is that side’s average over their last six.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches or fewer
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast. UB Lebrijana: no recent matches on file; Getafe: last 6 matches.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first.
In plain English
UB Lebrijana are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Getafe. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
UB Lebrijana to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Getafe · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win UB Lebrijana vs Getafe?
Bawler's model rates this match: UB Lebrijana are favoured (69% win probability vs 11% for Getafe, 20% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for UB Lebrijana vs Getafe?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is UB Lebrijana 2-0 Getafe (12.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict UB Lebrijana vs Getafe?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives UB Lebrijana 69%, the draw 20% and Getafe 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in UB Lebrijana vs Getafe?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on UB Lebrijana expecting 2.12 goals and Getafe 0.73.
Over or under 2.5 goals in UB Lebrijana vs Getafe?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.