UB Lebrijana 5–0 Ceuta 6 de JunioMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 26 September 2026

5–0

UB Lebrijana win

Ceuta 6 de Junio

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had UB Lebrijana at 45%, draw at 26%, Ceuta 6 de Junio at 30%. The match ended 5-0 — confirming the model's lean toward UB Lebrijana.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Lebrijana win

45%

Actual ✓

Draw

26%

Junio win

30%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.65 – 1.32

Total 2.97

Actual

5 – 0

Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, anchored by a combined 2.97 expected goals that tilts toward UB Lebrijana's 1.65 xG advantage at home."

> More from Bawler