FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Ceuta 6 de Junio 1–2 UB LebrijanaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Ceuta 6 de Junio
1–2
UB Lebrijana win
UB Lebrijana

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Ceuta 6 de Junio or draw at 72%. Bawler had Ceuta 6 de Junio at 47%, the draw at 26% and UB Lebrijana at 28%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Ceuta 6 de Junio win
47%
Draw
26%
UB Lebrijana win
28%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Ceuta 6 de Junio or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 78%, anchored by Ceuta 6 de Junio's 0.43 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.89."

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