Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelTSG Hoffenheim on top, and Adam Hložek getting plenty of shots away.
TSG Hoffenheim v FC Augsburg prediction
TSG Hoffenheim are favourites on our numbers: 58% to win, against 22% for FC Augsburg and 21% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 FC Augsburg, at 9%. We expect 3.7 goals in total: 2.3 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.4 for FC Augsburg. Both sides are more likely than not to score (67%) and three or more goals is 71%.
In their last six games TSG Hoffenheim have three wins, two draws and one defeat, while FC Augsburg have one win, two draws and three defeats. TSG Hoffenheim won their most recent match and FC Augsburg lost theirs. Of the players, Adam Hložek (TSG Hoffenheim) tops both our lists, with 3.7 shots and 1.1 on target expected if they start. Wouter Burger of TSG Hoffenheim is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27.
We expect TSG Hoffenheim to have 18.7 shots (7.0 on target) and FC Augsburg 12.8 (3.9 on target), and corners at 6.6 to 3.7. That points to TSG Hoffenheim doing more of the attacking. For Bawler's pick we have gone with TSG Hoffenheim or Draw, TSG Hoffenheim Over 14.5 Shots and Adam Hložek 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 54% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/6, or 1.84.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
TSG Hoffenheim · last 6
FC Augsburg · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
TSG Hoffenheim or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Bawler's model rates this match: TSG Hoffenheim are favoured (58% win probability vs 22% for FC Augsburg, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Bawler's predicted score is TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 FC Augsburg: the most likely score if TSG Hoffenheim win, which is the likeliest result (58%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.1%. Expected total goals: 3.7.
How does Bawler predict TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives TSG Hoffenheim 58%, the draw 21% and FC Augsburg 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 67% chance. That is based on TSG Hoffenheim expecting 2.31 goals and FC Augsburg 1.38.
Over or under 2.5 goals in TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Bawler's model expects 3.7 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 71%.
When are the TSG Hoffenheim v FC Augsburg line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for TSG Hoffenheim v FC Augsburg?
TSG Hoffenheim or Draw (78%), TSG Hoffenheim Over 14.5 Shots (77%), Adam Hložek 2+ Shots (82%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.84). 18+, please gamble responsibly.