Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Torino v Lazio prediction
Our model makes Lazio favourites for this Serie A game, giving them a 41% chance of winning. Torino are 32% and the draw is 27%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Torino 0–1 Lazio, the most likely Lazio win (10%). Torino are expected to score 1.2 goals and Lazio 1.4, 2.7 between them. Both teams scoring is 54% and three or more goals is 50%.
Giovanni Simeone is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.9 shots and 1.0 on target for Torino, if they start. For cards, Zakaria Aboukhlal (Torino) has been booked about once a game in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. Torino come in with three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last six. Lazio have five wins, one draw and no defeats over the same run.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Torino have won one, Lazio two, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Torino 2–0 Lazio, in Mar 2026. On shots, our forecast is 13.4 for Torino and 13.6 for Lazio, with 4.2 and 4.5 on target, and corners at 4.4 to 4.4. Bawler's pick combines Over 22.5 Total Shots, Over 5.5 Total Corners and Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 62%, a fair price of 8/13 (1.62).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Torino · last 6
Lazio · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Lazio or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Torino vs Lazio?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lazio are favoured (41% win probability vs 32% for Torino, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Torino vs Lazio?
Bawler's predicted score is Torino 0-1 Lazio: the most likely score if Lazio win, which is the likeliest result (41%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Torino vs Lazio?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Torino 32%, the draw 27% and Lazio 41%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Lazio?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on Torino expecting 1.24 goals and Lazio 1.44.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Torino vs Lazio?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.
When are the Torino v Lazio line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Torino v Lazio?
Over 22.5 Total Shots (78%), Over 5.5 Total Corners (84%), Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target (84%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 62% chance, a fair price of 8/13 (1.62). 18+, please gamble responsibly.