How it finished
Sweden beat Poland 3–1. Bawler's model had Sweden in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 4. Sweden had 12 shots (6 on target) to Poland's 18 (7), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we said the chances were
What we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
First half — what we expected
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Sweden vs Poland?
Sweden beat Poland 3–1. Bawler's model had Sweden in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; the match produced 4. Sweden had 12 shots (6 on target) to Poland's 18 (7), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.9.
What was the final score in Sweden vs Poland?
Sweden 3–1 Poland, played on 28 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Sweden 40%, the draw 25% and Poland 35%.
What were the stats in Sweden vs Poland?
Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–0.9, Shots 12–18, Shots on target 6–7, Shots inside box 9–9, Big chances 4–1, Corners 4–4, Saves 6–3, Fouls 8–9, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Sweden vs Poland?
Yes — both Sweden and Poland scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Sweden vs Poland right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Sweden or draw 65%, it finished Sweden won (40% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Landed.