Poland 0–0 Bosnia-HerzegovinaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 25 September 2026

0–0

Draw

Bosnia-Herzegovina

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Poland at 46%, draw at 25%, Bosnia-Herzegovina at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Poland to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Poland win

46%

Draw

25%

Actual ✓

Bosnia-Herzegovina win

29%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.73 – 1.35

Total 3.09

Actual

0 – 0

Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 81%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Pre-match: 71%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 37%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 82%, as Poland's 0.42 xG advantage and 1.77 expected output suggest they'll break through a Bosnia-Herzegovina side generating just 1.35."

> More from Bawler