FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 October 2026

Poland 6–0 RomaniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Poland
6–0
Poland win
Romania

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Poland to win at 62%. Bawler had Poland at 62%, the draw at 22% and Romania at 16%. The match finished 6–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Poland win
62%
Result
Draw
22%
Romania win
16%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 3.0
Actual
6 – 0
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.5 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Poland to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Poland's home-field advantage combines with a dominant 1.08 expected-goals edge to make a Home Win the clear 62% forecast."

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