Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Eseosa Sule and Tyreece John-Jules both getting shots away.
St Mirren v Kilmarnock prediction
Our model makes St Mirren favourites for this Scottish Premiership game, giving them a 44% chance of winning. Kilmarnock are 31% and the draw is 26%. Our predicted score is St Mirren 2–1 Kilmarnock: the most likely score if St Mirren win, at 9%. Our expected goals are 1.6 for St Mirren and 1.3 for Kilmarnock, 2.9 in all. Both teams scoring is 59% and three or more goals is 56%.
On shots, our forecast is 16.2 for St Mirren and 11.5 for Kilmarnock, with 5.5 and 4.0 on target, and corners at 6.3 to 4.5. So we expect St Mirren to do more of the shooting. St Mirren come in with one win, one draw and four defeats in their last six. Kilmarnock have one win, one draw and four defeats over the same run.
Of their last five meetings on our records, St Mirren have won one, Kilmarnock three, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Kilmarnock 0–1 St. Mirren, in Sept 2026. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 22.5 Total Shots, Eseosa Sule 1+ Shot and Tyreece John-Jules 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 49% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/10, or 2.06.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
St Mirren · last 6
Kilmarnock · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
St Mirren or draw is 69% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Common questions
Who will win St Mirren vs Kilmarnock?
Bawler's model rates this match: St Mirren are favoured (44% win probability vs 31% for Kilmarnock, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for St Mirren vs Kilmarnock?
Bawler's predicted score is St Mirren 2-1 Kilmarnock: the most likely score if St Mirren win, which is the likeliest result (44%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.0%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict St Mirren vs Kilmarnock?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives St Mirren 44%, the draw 26% and Kilmarnock 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Kilmarnock?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on St Mirren expecting 1.62 goals and Kilmarnock 1.33.
Over or under 2.5 goals in St Mirren vs Kilmarnock?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.
When are the St Mirren v Kilmarnock line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for St Mirren v Kilmarnock?
Both Teams to Score (59%), Over 22.5 Total Shots (81%), Eseosa Sule 1+ Shot (90%), Tyreece John-Jules 1+ Shot (90%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.06). 18+, please gamble responsibly.