Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Tyreece John-Jules and Kevin Nisbet both getting shots away.
Kilmarnock v Aberdeen prediction
Kilmarnock are favourites on our numbers: 42% to win, against 33% for Aberdeen and 26% for a draw. Our predicted score is Kilmarnock 2–1 Aberdeen: the most likely score if Kilmarnock win, at 9%. Kilmarnock are expected to score 1.6 goals and Aberdeen 1.4, 3.0 between them. Both teams scoring is 60% and three or more goals is 58%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Kilmarnock have won one, Aberdeen two, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Kilmarnock 1–1 Aberdeen, in Sept 2026. Tyreece John-Jules is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.7 shots and 1.1 on target for Kilmarnock, if they start. For cards, Lewis Mayo (Aberdeen) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On shots, our forecast is 16.6 for Kilmarnock and 11.5 for Aberdeen, with 5.1 and 2.8 on target, and corners at 5.8 to 3.9. So we expect Kilmarnock to do more of the shooting. Kilmarnock come in with one win, two draws and three defeats in their last six. Aberdeen have one win, one draw and four defeats over the same run. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 23.5 Total Shots, Tyreece John-Jules 1+ Shot and Kevin Nisbet 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 49% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/10, or 2.06.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Kilmarnock · last 6
Aberdeen · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Kilmarnock or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premiership table →Common questions
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
Bawler's model rates this match: Kilmarnock are favoured (42% win probability vs 33% for Aberdeen, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
Bawler's predicted score is Kilmarnock 2-1 Aberdeen: the most likely score if Kilmarnock win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.8%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Kilmarnock 42%, the draw 26% and Aberdeen 33%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Kilmarnock expecting 1.61 goals and Aberdeen 1.40.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.
When are the Kilmarnock v Aberdeen line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Kilmarnock v Aberdeen?
Both Teams to Score (60%), Over 23.5 Total Shots (78%), Tyreece John-Jules 1+ Shot (95%), Kevin Nisbet 1+ Shot (87%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.06). 18+, please gamble responsibly.