Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Sint-Truidense v Racing Genk prediction
Sint-Truidense are favourites on our numbers: 41% to win, against 34% for Racing Genk and 25% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Sint-Truidense 2–1 Racing Genk, the most likely Sint-Truidense win (9%). We expect 3.1 goals in total: 1.6 for Sint-Truidense and 1.5 for Racing Genk. Both sides are more likely than not to score (62%) and three or more goals is 60%.
In their last six games Sint-Truidense have three wins, one draw and two defeats, while Racing Genk have three wins, no draws and three defeats. Sint-Truidense won their most recent match and Racing Genk lost theirs. We expect Sint-Truidense to have 16.3 shots (5.3 on target) and Racing Genk 13.4 (4.0 on target), and corners at 5.6 to 4.1.
Nathanaël Mbuku (Sint-Truidense) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.8 shots if they start. Shion Shinkawa (Sint-Truidense) leads for shots on target, at 1.0. Nelson Ishiwatari of Sint-Truidense is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Over 24.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 6.5 Total Shots on Target. The chance all three land is 59% on our numbers, so the fair price is 8/11, or 1.71.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Sint-Truidense · last 6
Racing Genk · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Sint-Truidense or draw is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Jupiler Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Sint-Truidense vs Racing Genk?
Bawler's model rates this match: Sint-Truidense are favoured (41% win probability vs 34% for Racing Genk, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Sint-Truidense vs Racing Genk?
Bawler's predicted score is Sint-Truidense 2-1 Racing Genk: the most likely score if Sint-Truidense win, which is the likeliest result (41%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.6%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Sint-Truidense vs Racing Genk?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Sint-Truidense 41%, the draw 25% and Racing Genk 34%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sint-Truidense vs Racing Genk?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 62% chance. That is based on Sint-Truidense expecting 1.63 goals and Racing Genk 1.49.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sint-Truidense vs Racing Genk?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 60%.
When are the Sint-Truidense v Racing Genk line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Sint-Truidense v Racing Genk?
Over 24.5 Total Shots (80%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (82%), Over 6.5 Total Shots on Target (80%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 59% chance, a fair price of 8/11 (1.71). 18+, please gamble responsibly.