FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Sion 2–4 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam or draw at 65%. Bawler had FC Sion at 35%, the draw at 26% and Ajax Amsterdam at 39%. The match finished 2–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Sion win
35%
Draw
26%
Ajax Amsterdam win
39%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 3.5
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.