FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Sion 2–4 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Sion at 35%, draw at 26%, Ajax Amsterdam at 39%. The match ended 2-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Ajax Amsterdam.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sion win
35%
Draw
26%
Amsterdam win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.50
Total 2.92
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost