FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 5–3 FC SionMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam or draw at 79%. Bawler had Ajax Amsterdam at 56%, the draw at 23% and FC Sion at 21%. The match finished 5–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
56%
Result
Draw
23%
FC Sion win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
5 – 3
Total 8 (+4.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.6 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 4.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast here, with Ajax's 2.02 xG substantially outpacing Sion's 1.17 in a match where Weghorst leads the hosts' attacking threat."