FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 2–2 HeerenveenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam or draw at 83%. Bawler had Ajax Amsterdam at 57%, the draw at 25% and Heerenveen at 17%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
57%
Draw
25%
Result
Heerenveen win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 88%
Landed
Outside shot
Heerenveen or draw
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 88%, underpinned by Ajax's dominant 2.10 xG versus Heerenveen's 1.09, a one-goal gap that striker Wout Weghorst (26% of team xG) figures centrally in creating."