Match prediction·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Friday 07 Aug, 18:00 UTC

SC Cambuur vs Excelsior

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Under 2.5 Goals is the play at 82% probability—a combined xG of just 1.50 between these teams projects a low-scoring affair.

📊 Win probability
51.4% home28.3% draw20.3% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
SC CambuurstepExcelsior
1.61Base xG · rolling 26-match1.16
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.82Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.09

Excelsior average 4.4 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
3
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
3
1
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
79%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

SC Cambuur fixtures & form →Excelsior fixtures & form →

SC Cambuur vs Excelsior — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between SC Cambuur and Excelsior — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: SC Cambuur 51% · draw 28% · Excelsior 20%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

SC Cambuur predictions & form →Excelsior predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
SC Cambuur 0–4 Excelsior
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.