Match prediction·PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal·Monday 10 Aug, 19:15 UTC

Santa Clara vs C.D. Nacional

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
43.0% home34.2% draw22.9% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Santa ClarastepC.D. Nacional
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Santa Clara average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches). C.D. Nacional average 5.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Santa Clara vs C.D. Nacional — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 11 May 2026, Santa Clara have won 1, C.D. Nacional have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
11 May 2026Santa Clara 20 C.D. NacionalPortugal: Primeira Liga

The model's verdict for this fixture: Santa Clara 43% · draw 34% · C.D. Nacional 23%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Santa Clara 22 C.D. Nacional
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.