What we expect
In plain English
Finland should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than San Marino, and San Marino have not beaten them in their last four meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Finland to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win San Marino vs Finland?
Bawler's model rates this match: Finland are favoured (85% win probability vs 5% for San Marino, 10% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for San Marino vs Finland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is San Marino 0-3 Finland (10.7% probability). Expected total goals: 4.01.
How does Bawler predict San Marino vs Finland?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives San Marino 5%, the draw 10% and Finland 85%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in San Marino vs Finland?
BTTS: No (50% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.73 and away expected goals 3.28.
Over or under 2.5 goals in San Marino vs Finland?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 4.01. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).