FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

San Marino 0–3 AlbaniaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

San Marino
0–3
Albania win
Albania
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had San Marino at 2%, draw at 9%, Albania at 89%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Albania.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Marino win
2%
Draw
9%
Albania win
89%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.41 – 3.13
Total 3.54
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (-0.5 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 89%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Albania's dominance in expected creation—a 2.68 xG advantage—underpins the Away Win forecast at 89% win probability."

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