Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelReal Madrid on top: Kylian Mbappé to test the keeper, and Lucas Boyé kept busy stopping them.
Real Madrid v Alavés prediction
Our model gives Real Madrid a 73% chance of winning this LaLiga game. A Alavés win is 10% and a draw 17%. Our predicted score is Real Madrid 2–0 Alavés, at 11%. Our expected goals are 2.5 for Real Madrid and 0.8 for Alavés, 3.3 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (51%) and three or more goals is 64%.
On form, Real Madrid have six wins, no draws and no defeats from their last six games, and Alavés have no wins, three draws and three defeats. We expect Real Madrid to have 20.4 shots (7.4 on target) and Alavés 9.8 (2.8 on target), and corners at 7.3 to 3.0. That points to Real Madrid doing more of the attacking.
Of the players, Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) tops both our lists, with 5.0 shots and 2.0 on target expected if they start. Youssef Enriquez of Alavés is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Real Madrid or Draw, Lucas Boyé 1+ Foul Committed and Kylian Mbappé 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 65% on our numbers, so the fair price is 8/15, or 1.54.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Real Madrid · last 6
Alavés · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Real Madrid to win is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Real Madrid vs Alavés?
Bawler's model rates this match: Real Madrid are favoured (73% win probability vs 10% for Alavés, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Alavés?
Bawler's predicted score is Real Madrid 2-0 Alavés: the most likely score if Real Madrid win, which is the likeliest result (73%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.3%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Real Madrid vs Alavés?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Real Madrid 73%, the draw 17% and Alavés 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Alavés?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. That is based on Real Madrid expecting 2.47 goals and Alavés 0.82.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Real Madrid vs Alavés?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 64%.
When are the Real Madrid v Alavés line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Real Madrid v Alavés?
Real Madrid or Draw (90%), Lucas Boyé 1+ Foul Committed (80%), Kylian Mbappé 1+ Shot on Target (82%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 65% chance, a fair price of 8/15 (1.54). 18+, please gamble responsibly.