Alavés v Deportivo prediction
Our model gives Alavés 48%, the draw 27% and Deportivo 25%, so Alavés start as favourites. Our predicted score is Alavés 1–0 Deportivo: the most likely score if Alavés win, at 11%. We expect 2.6 goals in total: 1.6 for Alavés and 1.0 for Deportivo. Both sides are more likely than not to score (51%) and three or more goals is 48%.
On form, Alavés have no wins, three draws and three defeats from their last six games, and Deportivo have two wins, two draws and two defeats. We expect Alavés to have 14.5 shots (4.2 on target) and Deportivo 9.8 (4.2 on target), and corners at 3.8 to 3.8. That points to Alavés doing more of the attacking.
Of the players, Toni Martínez (Alavés) tops both our lists, with 2.8 shots and 1.1 on target expected if they start. Lorenzo Amatucci of Deportivo is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Alavés · last 6
Deportivo · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Alavés or draw is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Alavés vs Deportivo?
Bawler's model rates this match: Alavés are favoured (48% win probability vs 25% for Deportivo, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Deportivo?
Bawler's predicted score is Alavés 1-0 Deportivo: the most likely score if Alavés win, which is the likeliest result (48%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.4%. Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict Alavés vs Deportivo?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Alavés 48%, the draw 27% and Deportivo 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Alavés vs Deportivo?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. That is based on Alavés expecting 1.55 goals and Deportivo 1.04.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Alavés vs Deportivo?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 48%.
When are the Alavés v Deportivo line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.