FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 04 November 2026
RB Leipzig 2–3 Manchester CityMatch recap · Wednesday, 04 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickLost
Manchester City or Draw✓
Manchester City Over 12.5 Shots✗
Erling Haaland 2+ Shots✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
RB Leipzig win
28%
Draw
23%
Manchester City win
50%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 2.0
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.