What we expect
In plain English
Rangers should win this one. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Kilmarnock, and Kilmarnock have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Rangers to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Rangers vs Kilmarnock?
Bawler's model rates this match: Rangers are favoured (77% win probability vs 8% for Kilmarnock, 14% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Rangers vs Kilmarnock?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Rangers 2-0 Kilmarnock (9.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.70.
How does Bawler predict Rangers vs Kilmarnock?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Rangers 77%, the draw 14% and Kilmarnock 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Rangers vs Kilmarnock?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.83 and away expected goals 0.87.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Rangers vs Kilmarnock?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.70. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).