FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Kilmarnock 3–2 MotherwellMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Motherwell or draw at 70%. Bawler had Kilmarnock at 30%, the draw at 25% and Motherwell at 46%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Kilmarnock win
30%
Result
Draw
25%
Motherwell win
46%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.7
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Motherwell or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.