Match prediction·EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification·Thursday 13 Aug, 18:30 UTC

Rangers vs Jagiellonia Bialystok

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
44.0% home39.2% draw16.7% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
RangersstepJagiellonia Bialystok
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Rangers average 6.7 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Under 2.5 goals
82%
Rangers or draw
51%
Jagiellonia Bialystok or draw
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Rangers vs Jagiellonia Bialystok — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, Rangers have won 0, Jagiellonia Bialystok have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 August 2026Jagiellonia Bialystok 21 RangersEurope: Europa League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Rangers 44% · draw 39% · Jagiellonia Bialystok 17%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.