FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Iberia 1999 1–2 Jagiellonia BialystokMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Iberia 1999 at 44%, draw at 26%, Jagiellonia Bialystok at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Iberia 1999 to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
1999 win
44%
Draw
26%
Bialystok win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.28
Total 2.88
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Iberia 1999's 0.31 xG advantage and 44% win probability underpin a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 78%, as both sides are expected to threaten at a combined 2.88 xG."