Pre-match, Bawler had Jagiellonia Bialystok at 44%, draw at 27%, Iberia 1999 at 29%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Jagiellonia Bialystok.
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.