FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Jagiellonia Bialystok 4–0 Iberia 1999Match recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Jagiellonia Bialystok or draw at 71%. Bawler had Jagiellonia Bialystok at 44%, the draw at 27% and Iberia 1999 at 29%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Jagiellonia Bialystok win
44%
Result
Draw
27%
Iberia 1999 win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.