FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Rangers 1–0 JablonecMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Rangers at 48%, draw at 25%, Jablonec at 28%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Rangers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rangers win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Jablonec win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.74 – 1.28
Total 3.02
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost