FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Rangers 1–0 JablonecMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Rangers or draw at 72%. Bawler had Rangers at 48%, the draw at 25% and Jablonec at 28%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rangers win
48%
Result
Draw
25%
Jablonec win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Medium confidence
Rangers or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.