FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Jablonec 2–0 RangersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Jablonec at 43%, draw at 25%, Rangers at 32%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Jablonec.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Jablonec win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Rangers win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.70 – 1.44
Total 3.14
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 82% across a fixture where Jablonec's 1.70 xG edges Rangers' 1.44, projecting a low-scoring but open European tie."