Match prediction·Europe: Champions League - Qualification·Tuesday 04 Aug, 18:00 UTC

Olympiacos vs NEC Nijmegen

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 79% probability because combined expected goals of just 1.70 leaves little margin for a multi-goal affair.

📊 Win probability
34.2% home40.0% draw25.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
OlympiacosstepNEC Nijmegen
0.82Base xG · rolling 26-match0.82
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.93Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.77

Olympiacos average 4.2 corners per game at home this season (6 competitive matches). Nijmegen average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (18 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
18
14
5
1
1
17
13
5
1
2
8
6
2
1
3
2
2
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Under 2.5 goals
79%
Draw
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Olympiacos vs Nijmegen — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Olympiacos and Nijmegen — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Olympiacos 34% · draw 40% · Nijmegen 26%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Olympiacos 00 NEC Nijmegen
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.