Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAFC Bournemouth on top, and Evanilson getting plenty of shots away.
AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest prediction
Our model gives AFC Bournemouth 53%, the draw 24% and Nottingham Forest 23%, so AFC Bournemouth start as favourites. Our predicted score is AFC Bournemouth 2–1 Nottingham Forest, the likeliest AFC Bournemouth win score (10%). AFC Bournemouth are expected to score 1.8 goals and Nottingham Forest 1.1, 2.9 between them. Both teams scoring is 56% and three or more goals is 56%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, AFC Bournemouth have won two, Nottingham Forest none, and three were drawn. When they last met, it finished Nottingham Forest 1–1 AFC Bournemouth, in May 2026. In their last six games AFC Bournemouth have six wins, no draws and no defeats, while Nottingham Forest have one win, one draw and four defeats. AFC Bournemouth won their most recent match and Nottingham Forest lost theirs.
Evanilson is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.4 shots and 0.8 on target for AFC Bournemouth, if they start. For cards, David Brooks (AFC Bournemouth) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On shots, our forecast is 16.9 for AFC Bournemouth and 10.0 for Nottingham Forest, with 4.8 and 3.5 on target, and corners at 6.0 to 3.6. So we expect AFC Bournemouth to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick combines AFC Bournemouth or Draw, AFC Bournemouth Over 12.5 Shots and Evanilson 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 44%, a fair price of 5/4 (2.27).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
AFC Bournemouth · last 6
Nottingham Forest · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
AFC Bournemouth or draw is 77% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bawler's model rates this match: AFC Bournemouth are favoured (53% win probability vs 23% for Nottingham Forest, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bawler's predicted score is AFC Bournemouth 2-1 Nottingham Forest: the most likely score if AFC Bournemouth win, which is the likeliest result (53%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives AFC Bournemouth 53%, the draw 24% and Nottingham Forest 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 56% chance. That is based on AFC Bournemouth expecting 1.81 goals and Nottingham Forest 1.11.
Over or under 2.5 goals in AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.
When are the AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest?
AFC Bournemouth or Draw (77%), AFC Bournemouth Over 12.5 Shots (80%), Evanilson 2+ Shots (65%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 44% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.27). 18+, please gamble responsibly.