What we expect
In plain English
Switzerland should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than North Macedonia. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Switzerland to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win North Macedonia vs Switzerland?
Bawler's model rates this match: Switzerland are favoured (83% win probability vs 5% for North Macedonia, 12% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for North Macedonia vs Switzerland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is North Macedonia 0-2 Switzerland (14.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.28.
How does Bawler predict North Macedonia vs Switzerland?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives North Macedonia 5%, the draw 12% and Switzerland 83%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in North Macedonia vs Switzerland?
BTTS: No (61% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.54 and away expected goals 2.75.
Over or under 2.5 goals in North Macedonia vs Switzerland?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.28. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).