Who will win Newcastle United vs Liverpool?

Bawler's model rates this match: Liverpool are favoured (42% win probability vs 32% for Newcastle United, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Liverpool?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Newcastle United 1-1 Liverpool (10.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.06.

How does Bawler predict Newcastle United vs Liverpool?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Newcastle United 32%, the draw 26% and Liverpool 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Liverpool?

BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.71 and away expected goals 1.36.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Newcastle United vs Liverpool?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.06. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Match prediction·England: Premier League·Sunday 23 Aug, 15:30 UTC

Newcastle United vs Liverpool

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability

32.3% home25.8% draw41.9% away

📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate

Newcastle Unitedstep

Liverpool

1.71Base xG · rolling 26-match1.36

no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob

1.71Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.36

Newcastle average 6.8 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Liverpool average 5.7 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate

home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 13 Aug 2026

NewcastleHome

Unavailable / doubtful

Tino Livramento — Calf injury sustained training with England before the 2026 World Cup; has since had surgery. Described by Howe as the longest-term absentee of the group
Expected return: Around the start of the season (Howe, late July 2026) - genuine doubt for GW1 v Liverpool on 23 August
Joelinton — Thigh injury that ended his 2025/26 season; running and rebuilding fitness, missed the opening pre-season matches
Expected return: Around the start of the season
Lewis Miley — Long-standing injury; 'really good progress'
Expected return: Expected to rejoin training at the La Manga camp (early August 2026)
William Osula — Tight groin - missed the Gateshead friendly
Expected return: 'Fine in a week or so' (Howe, c. 26 July 2026); expected to travel to Spain
Fabian Schar — Returned in pre-season after seven months out, then went off early in the Bristol City friendly on 29 July 2026 with a suspected groin/tightness problem.

+1 more absence reported

Latest updates

13 Aug · Departure
Alex Murphy joins FC Kaiserslautern on season-long loan
Newcastle officially confirmed the 22-year-old defender has joined 2. Bundesliga side 1. FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the whole of 2026/27.
13 Aug · Return
Elanga and Lewis Hall both start v Everton after fitness scares
Newcastle's official team news confirmed Elanga was "stretchered off in Spain, but is fit enough to start here" — four days after a heavy Jose Gaya challenge at Valencia left him needing a…

LiverpoolAway

Unavailable / doubtful

Hugo Ekitike — Ruptured Achilles tendon (April 2026)
Expected return: Months away — Iraola: 'still way off'. No date given
Conor Bradley — Significant knee injury, surgery (January 2026)
Expected return: Months away — Iraola: 'still way off'. No date given
Giovanni Leoni — ACL tear (sustained early in 2025/26)
Expected return: Closest of the long-term absentees to returning; no date given
Joe Gomez — Muscle injury, limped off in pre-season friendly v Sunderland (25 July 2026). Iraola called it the 'worst news' of the game
Stefan Bajcetic — Returning from injury
Expected return: Expected to train partially with the group during the US pre-season tour

+1 more absence reported

Latest updates

10 Aug · Injury
Jacquet held back against Monaco as precaution, Iraola says fit for Como
Iraola said of the £60m Rennes signing: 'we were in doubt whether to pick him today, should be fine for next one.' Jacquet has still not made his Liverpool bow but is expected to face Como…
10 Aug · Manager
Mac Allister links up with Liverpool squad Monday after post-World Cup break
Iraola confirmed Mac Allister 'will link up with us on Monday' (10 August) following a three-week holiday after Argentina's run to the World Cup final.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 13 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

NewcastleHome4-3-3 · shape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKNick Pope
Defence
RBTino Livramento (fitness doubt; Jacob Murphy has deputised at RB)CBMalick ThiawCBSven BotmanLBLewis Hall
Midfield
CMBruno Guimaraes (transfer doubt - Arsenal interest)CMAladji BambaCMJoelinton (fitness doubt) or Joe Willock
Attack
RWAnthony ElangaLWHarvey BarnesSTNick Woltemade or Yoane Wissa
Selection doubts
·GOALKEEPER: Nick Pope vs GBP 18.5m signing Ewen Jaouen - and now Braga's Lukas Hornicek, whose EUR 30m release clause Newcastle have reportedly agreed to meet (TEAMtalk/Football365, 30 July; agreed…
·STRIKER: three-way between Nick Woltemade (GBP 64.9m club-record signing from Stuttgart in Aug 2025, contracted to 2031), Yoane Wissa and William Osula.

LiverpoolAway4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKAlisson Becker
Defence
RBJeremie Frimpong (Bradley and Gomez both injured)CBJeremy JacquetCBVirgil van DijkLBMilos Kerkez
Midfield
CMRyan GravenberchCMAlexis Mac AllisterAMFlorian Wirtz
Attack
RWunresolved — Victor Munoz / Federico Chiesa / Rio Ngumoha / Dominik Szoboszlai wideLWCody GakpoSTAlexander Isak
Selection doubts
·Right wing is genuinely open for the first time since 2017 with Salah gone — Munoz, Chiesa, Ngumoha and a wide Szoboszlai are all candidates; Liverpool were still reported to want another attacker
·Right-back: Frimpong by default with Bradley (knee) and Gomez (muscle) out

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

IsakLIV · FWD · £9.0m4.0 pts

WirtzLIV · MID · £7.5m3.9 pts

VirgilLIV · DEF · £6.5m3.8 pts

All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Newcastle United fixtures & form →

Liverpool fixtures & form →

Newcastle vs Liverpool — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Newcastle and Liverpool — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Newcastle 32% · draw 26% · Liverpool 42%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Newcastle predictions & form →Liverpool predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.