Match prediction·EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification·Tuesday 11 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Lyon vs Sparta Prague

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
67.7% home22.2% draw10.2% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
LyonstepSparta Prague
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Lyon average 5.9 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Sparta Prague average 5.2 corners per game away from home this season (6 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Lyon to win
83%
Not both teams to score
51%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Lyon vs Sparta Prague — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 4 August 2026, Lyon have won 0, Sparta Prague have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
4 August 2026Sparta Prague 21 LyonEurope: Champions League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Lyon 68% · draw 22% · Sparta Prague 10%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Lyon 30 Sparta Prague
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.