Match prediction·EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification·Tuesday 18 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Levski SofiastepAEK Athens
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Levski Sofia or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Levski Sofia Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Levski Sofia average 6.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). AEK Athens average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (5 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Levski Sofia and AEK Athens — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Levski Sofia 40% · draw 28% · AEK Athens 32%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.