FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
AEK Athens 4–0 Levski SofiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AEK Athens at 73%, draw at 17%, Levski Sofia at 10%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward AEK Athens.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Athens win
73%
Actual ✓
Draw
17%
Sofia win
10%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.53 – 0.85
Total 3.37
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost