FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
AEK Athens 4–0 Levski SofiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AEK Athens to win at 73%. Bawler had AEK Athens at 73%, the draw at 17% and Levski Sofia at 10%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AEK Athens win
73%
Result
Draw
17%
Levski Sofia win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 0.8
Total 3.4
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.1 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AEK Athens to win
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.