FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Levski Sofia 0–0 AEK AthensMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Levski Sofia at 30%, draw at 27%, AEK Athens at 43%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was AEK Athens to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sofia win
30%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Athens win
43%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.53
Total 2.77
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won