FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Levski Sofia 0–0 AEK AthensMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AEK Athens or draw at 70%. Bawler had Levski Sofia at 30%, the draw at 27% and AEK Athens at 43%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Levski Sofia win
30%
Draw
27%
Result
AEK Athens win
43%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.