Leeds United vs Newcastle United prediction — Premier League · Mon 14 Sept · 20:00 UK

Premier League · Mon 14 Sept · 20:00 UK
43Leeds United win25Draw32Newcastle United win
Full time
4–1

How it finished

Leeds United beat Newcastle United 4–1. Leeds United had 15 shots (6 on target) to Newcastle United's 7 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.9.

Leeds UnitedFull-time statsNewcastle…
51%Possession49%
1.9Expected goals (xG)0.9
15Shots7
6Shots on target5
10Shots inside box4
3Big chances1
5Corners5
4Saves3
8Fouls13
2Offsides3
1Yellow cards2
We predicted
2–1
Likeliest score if Leeds United win (9%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (12%)
Expected goals
1.7v1.4
3.1 in total
Both teams score
61%
Yes
3+ goals
59%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Leeds UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedNewcastle United
1.7Goals1.4
15.1Shots13.6
4.7On target4.4
5.5Corners5.0
Leeds UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedNewcastle United
0.8Goals0.9
7.1Shots6.4
2.1On target2.2
2.6Corners2.4
Leeds UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedNewcastle United
0.9Goals0.5
8.0Shots7.2
2.7On target2.2
2.9Corners2.7

What we said the chances were

Goal before half-time82%
2 or more goals81%
Leeds United to score81%
Newcastle United to score76%
3 goals or fewer63%

First half — what we expected

Leeds United
54%
to score before half-time
Newcastle United
61%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

Leeds UnitedLeeds UnitedNewcastle UnitedNewcastle United
65%6+ shots56%
41%8+ shots32%
83%1+ shots on target86%
34%3+ shots on target38%
68%2+ corners63%
27%4+ corners23%

League position

Newcastle United in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Jan 2026Newcastle United 4–3 Leeds United
Aug 2025Leeds United 0–0 Newcastle United
May 2023Leeds United 2–2 Newcastle United
Dec 2022Newcastle United 0–0 Leeds United
Jan 2022Leeds United 0–1 Newcastle United
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Premier League table →
All fixtures & results →Leeds United form →Newcastle United form →

Common questions

Who won Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

Leeds United beat Newcastle United 4–1. Leeds United had 15 shots (6 on target) to Newcastle United's 7 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.9.

What was the final score in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

Leeds United 4–1 Newcastle United, played on 14 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Leeds United 43%, the draw 25% and Newcastle United 32%.

What were the stats in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–0.9, Shots 15–7, Shots on target 6–5, Shots inside box 10–4, Big chances 3–1, Corners 5–5, Saves 4–3, Fouls 8–13, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 1–2.

Did both teams score in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

Yes — both Leeds United and Newcastle United scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.