FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Leeds United 1–1 Manchester UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United or draw at 64%. Bawler had Leeds United at 36%, the draw at 26% and Manchester United at 39%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Leeds United win
36%
Draw
26%
Result
Manchester United win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.